Gold and Geopolitical Risk

Abstract

There is a growing empirical literature on gold’s safe haven status with respect to financial risks but no study with respect to global geopolitical risks. This paper extends the common focus on extreme stock market movements and financial turmoil with an analysis of geopolitical risk. We find that gold shows a unique behavior among all precious metals with a positive reaction to geopolitical risks and threats but no reaction to realized geopolitical acts. There is no additional increase in gold return volatility due to geopolitical risks and geopolitical risk is not captured by the stock market volatility index VIX. The findings provide new evidence on the unique status of gold as a global safe haven asset.

Keywords: Gold; safe haven; geopolitical risks; VIX; precious metals; Bitcoin

JEL Classification: G10; G11; G14: G15; G18; F5