Predicting ‘Who Voted for Brexit’ Through Ecological Analysis – An Example of the Problem of Confounding, and its Resolution
10 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2018
Date Written: January 31, 2018
In a recent paper Becker et al. have analysed the pattern of voting at the UK’s 2016 Referendum on membership of the EU, testing four hypotheses with a wide range of variables. Re-analysis of their data identifies a number of problems of confounding resulting from collinearity among the independent variables which create difficulties in interpretation of the results. This brief comment suggests an alternative analytical procedure that removes the confounding problems and generates regression results that are readily interpreted.
Keywords: Confounding, UK, Voting, Brexit
JEL Classification: C18, C36, D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation