Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications

32 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2018

See all articles by Valerie Cerra

Valerie Cerra

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Sweta C. Saxena

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: November 2017

Abstract

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap' can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.

Keywords: Business cycles, Financial crises, Potential output, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Macroprudential Policy, booms, crises, recoveries, business cycle, output gap, growth, foreign reserves, macro-prudential policy, Global Financial Crisis, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

JEL Classification: E32, F41, O11, O47

Suggested Citation

Cerra, Valerie and Saxena, Sweta C., Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications (November 2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/250, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3116207

Valerie Cerra (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-8596 (Phone)

Sweta C. Saxena

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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