Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery

Abstract

While Brazil's deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularlylarge fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginningof 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed tothe investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil's medium-term growthprospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related toeconomic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of thefactors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalizeproviding some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverageand the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest aturnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.

Keywords: Investment, Western Hemisphere, Brazil, Recession

JEL Classification: E22, E32