人工智能的就业影响 (The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment)

陈永伟,许多. 人工智能的就业影响[J]. 比较, 2018 (2): 135-160. Yongwei Chen, Duo Xu. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment[J]. Comparative Studies, 2018 (2): 135-160.

24 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2018 Last revised: 1 Jun 2018

See all articles by Yongwei Chen

Yongwei Chen

Peking University

Duo Xu

Peking University

Date Written: February 2, 2018

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: “人工智能革命”在对生产力产生巨大推进的同时,也带来了潜在的失业威胁。本文在对技术性失业的相关理论和历史进行回顾的基础上,对“人工智能革命”可能对中国劳动力市场造成的影响进行了预测。根据估计,在未来20年中,总就业人的76.76%会遭受到人工智能的冲击,如果只考虑非农业人口,这一比例是65.58%。我们认为,要应对这一冲击,关键是要用公共政策激活技术进步对就业的几个补偿机制,从而使得新创造出的就业机会足以弥补被替代的就业岗位。

English Abstract: While the "artificial intelligence revolution" has brought about great progress in productivity, it also brings about the potential increase of the unemployment rate. By reviewing relevant theories and history of technological unemployment, this paper predicts the impact of "artificial intelligence revolution" on China's labor market. It is estimated that 76.76 percent of total employment will be influenced by artificial intelligence in the next 20 years, 65.58 percent if only non-agricultural population is considered. We believe that to cope with the impact, the key is to make the best use of public policy to activate a few compensation mechanism of technological progress to employment, so that the newly created jobs outnumber the substituted jobs.

Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Employment, Compensation Mechanism

JEL Classification: L00, J00

Suggested Citation

Chen, Yongwei and Xu, Duo, 人工智能的就业影响 (The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment) (February 2, 2018). 陈永伟,许多. 人工智能的就业影响[J]. 比较, 2018 (2): 135-160. Yongwei Chen, Duo Xu. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment[J]. Comparative Studies, 2018 (2): 135-160.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3116753 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3116753

Yongwei Chen

Peking University ( email )

Beijing, 100871
China

Duo Xu (Contact Author)

Peking University ( email )

Beijing
China

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