A Delicate Sense of (Economic) Balance: Turkey, Russia and the Other Strategic Map

Abstract

As neither Russia, nor Turkey seem to have reached the ‘end of history’, their proximity and persistent narratives of cultural-religious clash, still provide reasons for mounting frictions. Not necessarily in a military sense – although minor incidents have occurred – but in a race to the bottom for winning the hearts and minds (or pockets) of polities from their overlapping spheres of influence. In a certain sense, this competition resembles a cat-and-mouse game across three seas, two mountain ranges and one desert. The enlarged neighbourhood is tackled economically by the two actors in a strategy of mutual containment and counter-containment, trying to ensure regional allegiances which would enforce each other’s position in their bilateral dynamics.

Both Russia and Turkey deploy trade and investment in a strategic manner, in line with classical geoeconomic thinking , seeking to alter the fragile equilibrium in the area and – finally – to reach another asymmetric balance. While politically – and militarily – the two powers have reached a non-combat stalemate (and even announce greater collaboration), their mercantile tactics continue to be intensively used to weaken the influence of the other in various hotspots around the region. The confrontation is silent and covert, not reaching any level of turbulence and being part of a long-term engagement. With the neighbourhood and with each other.

Keywords: Russia, Turkey, geoeconomics, interdependence, geopolitics

JEL Classification: F5