Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy

69 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2018

See all articles by Tobias Adrian

Tobias Adrian

International Monetary Fund

Fernando Duarte

Brown University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2018


We present a microfounded New Keynesian model that features financial vulnerabilities. Financial intermediaries' occasionally binding value at risk constraints give rise to variation in the pricing of risk that generate time varying risk in the conditional mean and volatility of the output gap. The conditional mean and volatility are negatively related: during times of easy financial conditions, growth tends to be high, and risk tends to be low. Monetary policy affects output directly via the IS curve, and indirectly via the pricing of risk that relates to the tightness of the value at risk constraint. The optimal monetary policy rule always depends on financial vulnerabilities in addition to the output gap, inflation, and the natural rate. We show that a classic Taylor rule exacerbates deviations of the output gap from its target value of zero relative to an optimal interest rate rule that includes vulnerability. Simulations show that optimal policy significantly increases welfare relative to a classic Taylor rule. Alternative policy paths using historical examples illustrate the usefulness of the proposed policy rule.

Keywords: Financial Stability, Macro-Finance, monetary policy

JEL Classification: E52, G10, G12

Suggested Citation

Adrian, Tobias and Duarte, Fernando, Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy (February 2018). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12680, Available at SSRN:

Tobias Adrian (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States


Fernando Duarte

Brown University ( email )

64 Waterman Street
Providence, RI 02912
United States


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