The Brexit Roadmap: Mapping the Choices and Consequences During the EU/UK Withdrawal and Future Relationship Negotiations

Abstract

The UK is the first EU Member State to have invoked Article 50 TEU. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the process that leads to the withdrawal of the UK and the construction of a new relationship between the EU and the UK. A distinction has been made between three agreements that will possibly be concluded. The first agreement consists of the terms of the withdrawal including the financial settlement, the reciprocal rights of EU and UK citizens and the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The second agreement will arrange the future relationship and lays out the trade rules and cooperation in other areas such as security. The third possible agreement consists of transition arrangements to cover the gap between the day of withdrawal and the entering into force of the future relationship agreement. The study gives an in-depth analysis of how these agreements will be realised, including the decision-making actors, potential complications and the legal, political and financial consequences that derive from it. The result is a process scheme that shows the subsequent steps for realizing the withdrawal and the new relationship, an overview of the possible forms the future relationship and how these compare to EU membership. Furthermore, the study shows that there are many uncertainties surrounding the withdrawal and that the desires of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to remain in the EU are unrealistic.

Keywords: Brexit, Article 50 TEU, Withdrawal Agreement, Transition Agreement, Future Relationship Agreement, Withdrawal from the EU

JEL Classification: K33