Never Change a Winning Team: An Analysis of Hazard Rates in the NBA
Greifswald Economics Working Paper No. 3/02
32 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2002
Date Written: May 2002
We estimate Cox models to determine proportional hazard rates in professional basketball, concerning leaving the league or changing the team by using a database covering all players of the NBA in the 90's. We predict and confirm that league-hazards depend on a player's performance. A team-switch, however, cannot depend on low performance itself because there has to be a team willing to accept the (new) player. Accordingly we find that a good scoring performance and an intense use of a player reduces the probability of a team-switch, whereas high salaries or non-scoring performance do not.
Keywords: Cox model, hazard rates, matching, NBA, sports economics, turnover
JEL Classification: C41, J63, L83, M51
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation