Determinants and Predictive Power of Fitted Model for Under-Five Child Mortality in Bangladesh

Abstract

Under-5 mortality (U5M) is one of the central public health issues in many developing countries like Bangladesh. The main purpose of this study is to recognize determinants of U5M and to assess the predictive power of the fitted model. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression model is applied to identify the determinants using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2014 data. To assess the fitness of the model, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit test and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) are used whereas Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve) is used to measure the predictive power of the fitted model. The estimation results reveal that antenatal care, maternal education, exposure to media, mother’s age at birth, birth status, birth order number, caesarean delivery and wealth status are significant determinants of U5M. The model fitting tests suggest that the fitted model has an excellent predictive power. The identified potential determinants can be used in formulating policies to improve child survival in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Under-five mortality, Child survival, Predictive power, Odds ratio, Bangladesh