Human Smuggling and Intentions to Migrate: Global Evidence from a Supply Shock Along Africa-to-Europe Migration Routes

31 Pages Posted: 22 May 2018

See all articles by Guido Friebel

Guido Friebel

Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Miriam Manchin

University College London; Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano

Mariapia Mendola

University of Milan - Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano (LdA); Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES)

Giovanni Prarolo

University of Bologna; University of Milan - Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano (LdA)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 6, 2017

Abstract

Africa-to-Europe irregular migration depends heavily on human smuggling services.The demise of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 marked the end of a bilateral agreement between Italy and Libya and opened the Central Mediterranean Route for irregular border crossing. How did this remarkable increase in human smuggling services affect migration intentions in the rest of the region? This paper isolates a causal impact by exploiting the spatial dimension of the smuggling network and its change over time, which produced a heterogeneous decrease in bilateral migration distances between countries in Africa and Europe.We use this source of variation and a novel dataset of bilateral distances along irregular land and sea routes, combined with cross-country survey data on individual intentions to move from Africa to Europe between 2010 and 2012. Netting out pair-and country-by-time-specific fixes effects, we find a large negative effect off distance along smuggling routes on individual migration intentions. Shorter distances increase the willingness to migrate especially for youth, (medium) skilled individuals and those with a network abroad. The effect is stronger in origin countries not too far from Libya and with weak rule of law.

Keywords: International Migration, Human Smuggling, Illegal Migration, Libyan Civil war

JEL Classification: K23, K42

Suggested Citation

Friebel, Guido and Manchin, Miriam and Mendola, Mariapia and Prarolo, Giovanni, Human Smuggling and Intentions to Migrate: Global Evidence from a Supply Shock Along Africa-to-Europe Migration Routes (December 6, 2017). Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 432. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3122586 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3122586

Guido Friebel

Goethe University Frankfurt ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Miriam Manchin

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano ( email )

Via Conservatorio 7
Milan, 20122
Italy

Mariapia Mendola (Contact Author)

University of Milan - Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano (LdA) ( email )

Via Conservatorio 7
Milano, 20122
Italy

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )

Piazza dell'Ateneo Nuovo, 1
Milan, 20126
Italy

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES)

U6 Building
Viale Piero e Alberto Pirelli, 22
Milano, 20126
Italy

Giovanni Prarolo

University of Bologna ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40100
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www2.dse.unibo.it/prarolo/

University of Milan - Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano (LdA) ( email )

Via P. Amedeo 34
Milano, Mi 20122
Italy

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
25
Abstract Views
287
PlumX Metrics