Guns and Roses: Flower Exports and Electoral Violence in Kenya

51 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2018 Last revised: 7 Feb 2020

See all articles by Christopher Ksoll

Christopher Ksoll

University of Oxford

Rocco Macchiavello

University of Oxford - Nuffield College of Medicine; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Ameet Morjaria

Northwestern University - Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences (MEDS)

Date Written: March 1, 2016

Abstract

This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence. Predictions derived from a model of firms reaction to violence are tested using Kenya flower exporters during the 2008 post-election violence. The violence reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogenous e ffects: firms with direct contractual relationships in export markets and members of the business association had higher incentives and lower costs of reacting to the violence and su ffered smaller production and workers losses. Model calibrations suggest that the average firm operated at a loss during the violence and absent workers su ffered welfare losses at least three times larger than weekly earnings. The results show how the impact of violence on trade is mediated by diff erent institutional arrangements associated with export.

Keywords: flowers, exports, elections, electoral violence, Kenya, firms, trade

Suggested Citation

Ksoll, Christopher and Macchiavello, Rocco and Morjaria, Ameet, Guns and Roses: Flower Exports and Electoral Violence in Kenya (March 1, 2016). Global Poverty Research Lab Working Paper No. 17-102, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3126456 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3126456

Christopher Ksoll

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Rocco Macchiavello

University of Oxford - Nuffield College of Medicine ( email )

New Road
Oxford, OX1 1NF
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Ameet Morjaria (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences (MEDS) ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

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