An Analysis of the Reliability of First (Flash) Quarterly National Account Data Releases for Greece

Economic Bulletin No. 32, Bank of Greece (2009)

74 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2018

See all articles by Zacharias Bragoudakis

Zacharias Bragoudakis

Bank of Greece; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Economics

Nicholas Zonzilos

Bank of Greece

Georgia Pavlou

Bank of Greece

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 15, 2009

Abstract

In this article, the reliability of first (flash) quarterly national account data estimates compiled and released by the National Statistical Service of Greece is examined. The more reliable the first estimates, the better equipped are policy-makers to assess the economic situation and outlook. Against this background, this article attempts to quantify revisions using a set of standard statistics to assess the size, the direction and the volatility of revisions with a view to evaluating the reliability of first quarterly national account estimates. This article not only examines total quarterly GDP revisions, but also evaluates revisions to all components of demand. The results provide evidence that the first quarterly estimate of total GDP in both y-o-y and q-o-q terms is barely revised in prospective NSSG releases, while higher revisions are observed for GDP components. This finding stems from the fact that revisions at a disaggregated level tend to cancel out at the aggregate level.

Keywords: Quarterly national account data estimates, Revisions, Bias test

JEL Classification: B22, E01, E02

Suggested Citation

Bragoudakis, Zacharias and Zonzilos, Nicholas and Pavlou, Georgia, An Analysis of the Reliability of First (Flash) Quarterly National Account Data Releases for Greece (May 15, 2009). Economic Bulletin No. 32, Bank of Greece (2009) , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3128203

Zacharias Bragoudakis (Contact Author)

Bank of Greece ( email )

21 E. Venizelos Avenue
GR 102 50 Athens
Greece
+302103203605 (Phone)

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Economics ( email )

Sofocleous 1
Athens, 105 59
Greece
+30 21 0368 9400 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.uoa.gr/

Nicholas Zonzilos

Bank of Greece ( email )

21 E. Venizelos Avenue
GR-10250 Athens
Greece

Georgia Pavlou

Bank of Greece ( email )

21 E. Venizelos Avenue
GR 102 50 Athens
Greece

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
19
Abstract Views
265
PlumX Metrics