Somalia in the Age of the War on Terror: An Analysis of Violent Events and International Intervention between 2007 and 2017

Zambakari, Christopher, and Richard Rivera. "Somalia in the Age of the War on Terror: An Analysis of Violent Events and International Intervention between 2007 and 2017." Georgetown Public Policy Review 24, no. 1, Spring 2019

25 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2018 Last revised: 30 Apr 2019

See all articles by Christopher Zambakari

Christopher Zambakari

The Zambakari Advisory, LLC

Richard Rivera

Arizona State University (ASU)

Date Written: April 18, 2019

Abstract

This study sought to investigate the geographic location and frequency distribution of three event types – namely violent events, nonviolent events, and events characterized by riots and protests – and the distribution of political and military events and death rates by region. We provided an assessment of various international interventions in Somalia between 2007 and 2017. Our results showed that violent events (N = 17,539, 86.9%) were by far the most common event type, followed by nonviolent events (N = 1,372, 6.8%), with riots and protests accounting for just N = 1,278 or 6.3% of total events. We found that almost one half (48.7%) of the events involved political or ethnic militias, and over 42.95% of events involved rebel forces, with slightly less than this accounted for by the government (40.2% of events) and 29.4% of the events involved civilians. The northern and central regions of Somalia registered the lowest number of events and fatalities, with most violent events and fatalities occurring in the southern regions. There was a burst of fatalities in 2010, and a steady increase in death rate from 2011 until 2017. This violence has not been halted by external intervention, which has led to internal division in Somalia by subverting power dynamics, encouraging political polarization and radicalizing the insurgency and distribution of power, while lacking the resources and political will to sustain the preferred winning faction.

Keywords: Terrorism, Horn of Africa, Somalia, U.S. Covert Operations, Military Intervention, War on Terror, Terrorism, armed resistance, counterinsurgency, African Union, Somalia, peacekeeping, state-building, violent events, civil war, conflict data.

Suggested Citation

Zambakari, Christopher and Rivera, Richard, Somalia in the Age of the War on Terror: An Analysis of Violent Events and International Intervention between 2007 and 2017 (April 18, 2019). Zambakari, Christopher, and Richard Rivera. "Somalia in the Age of the War on Terror: An Analysis of Violent Events and International Intervention between 2007 and 2017." Georgetown Public Policy Review 24, no. 1, Spring 2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3128688

Christopher Zambakari (Contact Author)

The Zambakari Advisory, LLC ( email )

P.O. Box 18691
Phoenix, AZ ARIZONA (AZ) 85005
United States
6026709326 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.zambakari.org/

Richard Rivera

Arizona State University (ASU) ( email )

Farmer Building 440G PO Box 872011
Tempe, AZ 85287
United States

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