Electoral Spillovers in an Intertwined World: Brexit Effects on the 2016 Spanish Vote

University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics No. 03-2018

13 Pages Posted: 5 Mar 2018

See all articles by Agelos Delis

Agelos Delis

Aston University - Aston Business School; University of Nottingham - Nottingham Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy

Konstantinos Matakos

King's College London, Dept. of Political Economy

Dimitrios Xefteris

University of Cyprus

Date Written: February 24, 2018

Abstract

The Brexit vote took place three days before the June 26, 2016, Spain’s parliamentary elections, in which anti-systemic parties performed worse compared to the previous elections (December 2015) despite the optimistic predictions of the pre-election polls and the surge in the support for anti-systemic parties that was taking place elsewhere (Hobolt and de Vries 2016). We split the Spanish votes in local ones (casted after Brexit) and postal ones (casted before Brexit) and — by employing a differences-in-differences model a la Montalvo (2011) — we provide causal evidence suggesting that the electoral performance of the anti-systemic parties deteriorated due to the uncertainty and fear of destabilization caused to the Spanish electorate by the Brexit vote.

Keywords: Brexit, Spanish Elections, Electoral Spillovers, Natural Experiment, Uncertainty, Anti-Systemic Parties

JEL Classification: D72, F00, F50

Suggested Citation

Delis, Agelos and Matakos, Konstantinos and Xefteris, Dimitrios, Electoral Spillovers in an Intertwined World: Brexit Effects on the 2016 Spanish Vote (February 24, 2018). University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics No. 03-2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3129466 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3129466

Agelos Delis

Aston University - Aston Business School ( email )

Aston Triangle
Birmingham, B47ET
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www1.aston.ac.uk/aston-business-school/staff/academic/esg/dr-agelos-delis/

University of Nottingham - Nottingham Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy ( email )

School of Economics
University Park
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
United Kingdom

Konstantinos Matakos (Contact Author)

King's College London, Dept. of Political Economy ( email )

Strand Campus
London, WC2R 2LS
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/kostasmatakos/

Dimitrios Xefteris

University of Cyprus ( email )

75 Kallipoleos Street
P.O. Box 20537
1678 Nicosia
Cyprus

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