Liquidity Regimes and Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation

60 Pages Posted: 26 Feb 2018

See all articles by Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Kent D. Daniel

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Mehmet Saglam

University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2018

Abstract

We solve for the optimal dynamic asset allocation when expected returns, volatilities, and trading costs follow a regime switching model. The optimal policy is to trade partially towards an aim portfolio with a given trading speed. In a given state, the aim portfolio is a weighted average of mean-variance portfolios in every state, where the weight is a function of the probability of transitioning to that state, and the state's persistence, risk and trading costs. The trading speed is higher in states that are more persistent, where return volatility is higher and trading costs are lower. It can be optimal to deviate substantially from the mean-variance efficient portfolio (or from the risk-parity allocation) and to underweight high Sharpe ratio (high volatility) assets, as well as to trade more aggressively the less liquid assets in anticipation of an increase in their volatility and trading costs. We illustrate our approach in an empirical exercise in which we exploit time-variation in the expected return, volatility, and cost of trading of the value-weighted market portfolio of US common stocks. We estimate a regime switching model applied to a dataset of institutional trades, and find that realized trading costs are significantly higher when market volatility is high. The optimal dynamic strategy significantly outperforms a myopic trading strategy in an out-of-sample experiment. The highest gains arise from timing the changes in volatility and trading costs rather than expected returns.

Keywords: dynamic portfolio choice, mean-variance, price impact, risk-parity, stochastic volatility, transaction costs

JEL Classification: D53, G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Collin-Dufresne, Pierre and Daniel, Kent D. and Saglam, Mehmet, Liquidity Regimes and Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation (February 2018). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12737. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3130176

Pierre Collin-Dufresne (Contact Author)

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne ( email )

Quartier UNIL-Dorigny, Bâtiment Extranef, # 211
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1015 Lausanne, CH-6900
Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute

c/o University of Geneva
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CH-1211 Geneva 4
Switzerland

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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United States

Kent D. Daniel

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-4679 (Phone)
212-854-4679 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://kentdaniel.net/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Mehmet Saglam

University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate ( email )

Carl H. Lindner College of Business
Cincinnati, OH 45221
United States
(513) 556-9108 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://homepages.uc.edu/~saglammt/

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