Learning from Nationally Determined Contributions

40 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2018

See all articles by Keigo Akimoto

Keigo Akimoto

Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth

Joseph E. Aldy

Harvard Kennedy School; National Bureau of Economic Research; Resources for the Future; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Lara Aleluia Reis

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Carlo Carraro

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); Ca' Foscari University of Venice; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division); IPCC; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels; Green Growth Knowledge Platform; International Center for Climate Governance

Billy Pizer

Duke University

Massimo Tavoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); Princeton University - Princeton Environmental Institute

Date Written: February 2018

Abstract

National governments have submitted emission mitigation pledges under the Paris Agreement that vary considerably in their form, level of required emission mitigation, elaboration of non-emission goals, and implementation strategies. As a result, domestic emission mitigation programs necessary to deliver on the Paris pledges will diverge in the degree to which that mitigation will be achieved at least cost. This paper explores both what we learn from how national determined contributions (NDCs) diverge from least-cost policies and the implications for comparing mitigation effort. The NDCs can reveal a country's preferences over climate policy, economic development, and other priorities. Modeling analysis of the NDCs can highlight opportunities for (i) measuring the revealed cost of institutional and political constraints that limit least cost implementation; (ii) mitigating climate change alongside other policy objectives; (iii) policy learning over time. We undertake two case studies based on global energy-economic models to illustrate how implementation of NDCs may deviate from least-cost implementation. In the first case study, we employ the WITCH model to assess how the non-emissions goals in NDCs may constrain implementation in a way that increases costs related to cost-effective emissions abatement. In the second case study, we employ the DNE21+ model to assess how countries' stated domestic implementation policies may diverge from a cost-effective domestic mitigation policy. These modelling analyses serve to illustrate how comparing mitigation implementation can then be represented by a bounding exercise that develops both conservative and generous estimates of mitigation effort.

Keywords: comparability of effort, Emissions mitigation, international environmental agreements, modeling analysis, nationally determined contributions

Suggested Citation

Akimoto, Keigo and Aldy, Joseph E. and Aleluia Reis, Lara and Carraro, Carlo and Pizer, Billy and Tavoni, Massimo, Learning from Nationally Determined Contributions (February 2018). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12757. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3134408

Keigo Akimoto (Contact Author)

Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ( email )

No Address Available

Joseph E. Aldy

Harvard Kennedy School

79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-496-7213 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/joseph-aldy

National Bureau of Economic Research

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Resources for the Future

79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-496-7213 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/joseph-aldy

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Lara Aleluia Reis

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Carlo Carraro

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore 8
Venezia, 30124
Italy
+39 04 12700460 (Phone)
+39 04 12700412 (Fax)

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy
+39 04 1234 9166 (Phone)
+39 04 1234 9176 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.carlocarraro.org/

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division) ( email )

Via Augusto Imperatore 16
Lecce, 73100
Italy
+39 0832 288650 (Phone)
+39 0832 277603 (Fax)

IPCC ( email )

C/O World Meteorological Organization
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Geneva, CH-1211
Switzerland
+41-22-730-8208/54/84 (Phone)
+41-22-730-8025/13 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels

1 Place du Congres
B-1000 Brussels, 1000
Belgium
+32 2 229 3911 (Phone)
+32 2 219 4151 (Fax)

Green Growth Knowledge Platform ( email )

International Environment House
11-13 chemin des Anemones
Geneva, 1219
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/

International Center for Climate Governance ( email )

Island of San Giorgio Maggiore 8
Venice, I-30124
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.iccgov.org/

Billy Pizer

Duke University

Massimo Tavoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy

Princeton University - Princeton Environmental Institute

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

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