Modeling the Spatial Patterns of Intra-Day Crime Trends

49 Pages Posted: 8 Mar 2018

See all articles by Andrew Wheeler

Andrew Wheeler

University of Texas at Dallas - School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences

Cory Haberman

University of Cincinnati - School of Criminal Justice

Date Written: March 7, 2018

Abstract

Several prior studies have found that despite theoretical expectations otherwise, facilities (such as on-premise alcohol outlets) have consistent effects on crime regardless of time of the day (Bernasco et al., 2017; Haberman & Ratcliffe, 2015). We explain these results by failure to account for the regular background wave of crime, which results from ubiquitous patterns of human routine activities. Using eight years of data on assaults and robberies in Seattle (WA), we demonstrate the regularity of the within-day crime wave for all areas of the city. Then using models to predict when a crime will most likely occur, we demonstrate how schools and on-premise alcohol outlets cause bumps in the background wave at particular times of the day, such as when school dismisses. But those bumps dissipate quite rapidly in space, and are relatively small compared to the amplitude of the regular background wave of crime. Although facilities have theoretical times in which they should have a greater influence on crime patterns, they are situated within a community of other human activity uses, making it difficult to uniquely identify their effects separately from other aspects of the built environment.

Keywords: Micro-Places, Temporal-Analysis, Geographically-Weighted-Regression, Routine-Activities-Theory, Crime-Pattern-Theory

Suggested Citation

Wheeler, Andrew and Haberman, Cory, Modeling the Spatial Patterns of Intra-Day Crime Trends (March 7, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3136030 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3136030

Andrew Wheeler (Contact Author)

University of Texas at Dallas - School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences ( email )

P.O. Box 830688, GR 31
Richardson, TX 75083
United States

Cory Haberman

University of Cincinnati - School of Criminal Justice ( email )

600 Dyer Hall
P.O. Box 210389
Cincinnati, OH 45221-0389
United States

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