The Economic Impact of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership: What Have We Learned from CGE Simulation?

35 Pages Posted: 12 Mar 2018

See all articles by John Gilbert

John Gilbert

Utah State University - College of Business - Department of Economics

Taiji Furusawa

University of Tokyo

Robert Scollay

University of Auckland

Date Written: March 2018

Abstract

The Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, if were it to be successfully implemented, would be one of the largest regional agreements ever seen. It is the only exemplar to date of a “mega‐regional” FTA for which negotiations have been successfully concluded, and a landmark in evolving approaches to Asia–Pacific integration. As such, quantitative assessments of its potential effects are of considerable interest. One of the most widely used techniques for evaluating the economic impact of regional trading agreements is numerical simulation with computable general equilibrium, or CGE, models. There have now been a large number of papers written that use CGE methods to analyse the potential economic impact of the TPP agreement under varying theoretical and policy assumptions. In this paper we provide a synthesis of the key results that have emerged from the literature, and introduce some new simulation results of our own to anchor the discussion.

Keywords: Asia–Pacific, CGE, regional trade, Trans‐Pacific Partnership

Suggested Citation

Gilbert, John and Furusawa, Taiji and Scollay, Robert, The Economic Impact of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership: What Have We Learned from CGE Simulation? (March 2018). The World Economy, Vol. 41, Issue 3, pp. 831-865, 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3137368 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12573

John Gilbert (Contact Author)

Utah State University - College of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

3530 Old Main Hill
Logan, UT 84322-3530
United States
435-797-2314 (Phone)
435-797-2701 (Fax)

Robert Scollay

University of Auckland ( email )

Private Bag 92019
APEC - 8717; Com. A, room: 116
Auckland
New Zealand
64-9-373-7599 extn: 6910 (Phone)

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