Individual and Organizational Antecedents of Strategic Foresight — A Representational Approach
Strategy Science, Forthcoming
42 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2018 Last revised: 14 Jul 2018
Date Written: June 25, 2018
The ability to make predictions about strategic outcomes — what we term strategic foresight — is central to most theories of competitive advantage. This paper identifies individual - and organization-level antecedents of strategic foresight by analyzing an exercise taken by 358 MBA students. Among the individual antecedents, we show that two characteristics of mental representations (namely, their breadth and agreement with consensus) are positively related to strategic foresight. Comparing individual to group performance reveals that groups exhibit greater strategic foresight than do individuals. Finally, from comparing the performance of real-life groups with “statistical” groups (for which decisions are computed by averaging the predictions of individuals before they become group members), we find that the superiority of group performance is due mostly to aggregating predictions, not representations.
Keywords: Strategic Foresight, Managerial Cognition, Decision-Making Structure, Aggregation, Representation, Upper Echelons
JEL Classification: D81, D83, D71, D23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation