Individual and Organizational Antecedents of Strategic Foresight — A Representational Approach

Strategy Science, Forthcoming

42 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2018 Last revised: 14 Jul 2018

See all articles by Felipe A. Csaszar

Felipe A. Csaszar

University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business

Daniella Laureiro-Martinez

ETH Zurich

Date Written: June 25, 2018

Abstract

The ability to make predictions about strategic outcomes — what we term strategic foresight — is central to most theories of competitive advantage. This paper identifies individual - and organization-level antecedents of strategic foresight by analyzing an exercise taken by 358 MBA students. Among the individual antecedents, we show that two characteristics of mental representations (namely, their breadth and agreement with consensus) are positively related to strategic foresight. Comparing individual to group performance reveals that groups exhibit greater strategic foresight than do individuals. Finally, from comparing the performance of real-life groups with “statistical” groups (for which decisions are computed by averaging the predictions of individuals before they become group members), we find that the superiority of group performance is due mostly to aggregating predictions, not representations.

Keywords: Strategic Foresight, Managerial Cognition, Decision-Making Structure, Aggregation, Representation, Upper Echelons

JEL Classification: D81, D83, D71, D23

Suggested Citation

Csaszar, Felipe A. and Laureiro-Martinez, Daniella, Individual and Organizational Antecedents of Strategic Foresight — A Representational Approach (June 25, 2018). Strategy Science, Forthcoming , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3138822

Felipe A. Csaszar (Contact Author)

University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business ( email )

701 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI MI 48109
United States
(734) 615 4854 (Phone)

Daniella Laureiro-Martinez

ETH Zurich ( email )

Weinbergstrasse 56/58
Office H306
Zurich, --- Select One --- 8092
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.timgroup.ethz.ch/en/people/dlaureiro

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