Влияние Старения Населения На Глобальную Систему Ценностей и Политическую Динамику (The Impact of Population Aging on the Global Value System and Political Dynamics)

46 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2018 Last revised: 16 Apr 2018

See all articles by Andrey Korotaev

Andrey Korotaev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research; National Research University Higher School of Economics; Institute for African Studies

Sergey Shulgin

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Yulia Zinkina

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Kirill Novikov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Date Written: March 12, 2018

Abstract

Russian Abstract: В данной работе исследуется глобальная система ценностей и процесс её изменения в результате старения населения, а также влияние системы ценностей на политическую и социальную динамику. Анализ проводится и использованием микроэкономической базы данных Всемирного обследования ценностей (ВОЦ/WVS) c использованием APC моделей разделения когортного и возрастного эффекта. В работе оценивается две спецификации модели, в которых выделяется когортный и возрастной эффекты для отдельных измерений индивидуальных ценностей. С использованием полученных оценок моделей и демографических прогнозов ООН 2017 г., строятся оценки динамики траекторий отдельных измерений ценностей и делается анализ возможных последствий прогнозируемых изменений.

English Abstract: In this paper, we study the global value system and the process of its change as a result of population aging, as well as the influence of the value system on political and social dynamics. The analysis is also carried out using the microeconomic database of the World Values ​​Survey (VOTS / WVS) using APC models for separating the cohort and age effect. The paper estimates two model specifications in which cohort and age effects are singled out for individual measurements of individual values. With the use of the UN Model and UN Demographic Projections estimates of 2017, we make estimates of the dynamics of the trajectories of individual value measurements and analyze of the possible consequences of the projected changes.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Keywords: индивидуальные ценности, старение население, Всемирное обследование ценностей (ВОЦ/WVS), возрастной эффект, когортный эффект, перспективный возраст, APC-анализ; individual values, aging population, World Values Survey (WVS), age effect, cohort effect, prospective age, APC-analysis

Suggested Citation

Korotaev, Andrey and Shulgin, Sergey and Zinkina, Yulia and Novikov, Kirill, Влияние Старения Населения На Глобальную Систему Ценностей и Политическую Динамику (The Impact of Population Aging on the Global Value System and Political Dynamics) (March 12, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3139641 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3139641

Andrey Korotaev (Contact Author)

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Moscow
Russia
9175178034 (Phone)

Institute for African Studies ( email )

Sergey Shulgin

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Yulia Zinkina

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Kirill Novikov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

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