Explaining the Slow U.S.Recovery: 2010–2017

25 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2018

See all articles by Ray C. Fair

Ray C. Fair

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance

Date Written: March 14, 2018

Abstract

This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force participation are endogenous variables in the model, and so their behavior in this period is a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.

Suggested Citation

Fair, Ray C., Explaining the Slow U.S.Recovery: 2010–2017 (March 14, 2018). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2124. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3140722 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3140722

Ray C. Fair (Contact Author)

Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States
203-432-3715 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu

Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance ( email )

Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520
United States
203-432-3715 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
38
Abstract Views
260
PlumX Metrics