On Revolutions

30 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2018

See all articles by Armand M. Leroi

Armand M. Leroi

Imperial College London

Ben C. Lambert

University of Oxford - Department of Zoology

Matthias Mauch

Queen Mary University of London

Marina Papadopoulou

University of Groningen ; Imperial College London

Sophia Ananiadou

University of Manchester

Staffan I. Lindberg

Göteborg University - Varieties of Democracy Institute; Göteborg University - Department of Political Science

Patrik Lindenfors

Stockholm University

Date Written: March 2018

Abstract

Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as "revolutions" and, though they have identified many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of the multivariate rate of change called Foote Novelty. We define revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure, F, can, by a non-parametric test, be shown to be significantly greater than the background rate. Our method also identifies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. Importantly, our method permits searching for revolutions over any time scale that the data permit. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions, both well known and not. Our method is a general one that can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.

Suggested Citation

Leroi, Armand M. and Lambert, Ben C. and Mauch, Matthias and Papadopoulou, Marina and Ananiadou, Sophia and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Lindenfors, Patrik, On Revolutions (March 2018). V-Dem Working Paper 2018:63. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3141154 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3141154

Armand M. Leroi (Contact Author)

Imperial College London ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London, Greater London SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Ben C. Lambert

University of Oxford - Department of Zoology ( email )

New Radcliffe House
Radcliffe Observatory Quarter
Oxford, OX13 5QL
United Kingdom

Matthias Mauch

Queen Mary University of London ( email )

Mile End Rd
Mile End Road
London, London E1 4NS
United Kingdom

Marina Papadopoulou

University of Groningen

Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences
Nijenborgh 7
Groningen, Groningen 9747 AG
Netherlands

Imperial College London ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London, Greater London SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Sophia Ananiadou

University of Manchester ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

Staffan I. Lindberg

Göteborg University - Varieties of Democracy Institute ( email )

Sprängkullsgatan 19
Gothenburg, Gothenburg 405 30
Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://www.pol.gu.se/varianter-pa-demokrati--v-dem-/

Göteborg University - Department of Political Science ( email )

Box 711
Gothenburg, S-405 30
Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://www.pol.gu.se

Patrik Lindenfors

Stockholm University ( email )

Centre for the Study of Cultural Evolution
Stockholm, S-106 91
Sweden
+46703418687 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.su.se/profiles/patrikj-1.183878

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