From Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to Carbon Climate Response
11 Pages Posted: 17 Mar 2018
Date Written: March 17, 2018
A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the coefficient of proportionality between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. This line of research has been retarded by large uncertainties in empirical estimates of the ECS. An alternative to the ECS that offers a more stable metric for AGW is the Carbon Climate Response or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (CCR/TCRE). It is computed as the coefficient of proportionality between cumulative fossil fuel emissions and temperature. The CCR/TCRE metric provides a direct connection from emissions to temperature without the intervening step of atmospheric accumulation. We show here that though the CCR/TCRE is stable, it has no interpretation in terms of AGW because the proportionality it describes is spurious and specious.
Keywords: Global Warming, Climate Change, Fossil Fuel Emissions, Anthropogenic Global Warming, AGW, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, CCR, Carbon Climate Response, Cumulative Emissions, Proportionality of Temperature and Cumulative Emissions TCRE, Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions
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