A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels
Science Direct Working Paper No S1574-0358(04)70485-2
19 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2018
Date Written: June 2001
Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation, The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small.
Keywords: Statistics, Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes, Statistics/0106002
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