A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels

Science Direct Working Paper No S1574-0358(04)70485-2

19 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2018

See all articles by Kurt Brännäs

Kurt Brännäs

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jörgen Hellström

Umeå University - Umeå School of Business and Economics

Jonas Nordström

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: June 2001

Abstract

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation, The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small.

Keywords: Statistics, Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes, Statistics/0106002

Suggested Citation

Brännäs, Kurt and Hellström, Jörgen and Nordström, Jonas, A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels (June 2001). Mathematics Preprint Archive Vol. 2001, Issue 6, pp 90-108. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3142801

Kurt Brännäs (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Jörgen Hellström

Umeå University - Umeå School of Business and Economics ( email )

Umea, 90187
Sweden
+46-90-7866987 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.usbe.umu.se/english/about/staff/?languageId=1&uid=johe0001

Jonas Nordström

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

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