Анализ Подходов К Изучению Проблемы Долговременной Стагнации в Современных Экономиках (Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies)

108 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2018 Last revised: 16 Apr 2018

Pavel Trunin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Alexandra Bozhechkova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Diana Petrova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow Campus, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Students

Anastasiia Chaikina

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Ivan Nikanorov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Date Written: March 21, 2018

Abstract

Russian Abstract: Данная работа посвящена изучению факторов и механизмов долговременной стагнации в современных экономиках, выявлению степени их влияния на динамику производительности и темпов экономического роста. В первой части работы представлены основные теоретические подходы к моделированию долговременной стагнации, выявлены ключевые факторы стагнации, включая негативные демографические тенденции, неравенство в распределении доходов, замедление темпов роста человеческого капитала и научно-технического прогресса и др. Во второй части исследования представлен обзор эмпирических работ, посвященных калибровке теоретических моделей или эконометрическим оценкам степени влияния факторов долговременной стагнации на динамику выпуска. В третьей части работы приведены результаты анализа международного опыта функционирования экономик в условиях долговременной стагнации на примере Японии, США и Еврозоны, выявлены общие и специфические факторы, способствующие реализации сценария долговременного торможения в данных странах

English Abstract: In this paper we study the factors and mechanisms of secular stagnation in modern economies, revealing the degree of their influence on the dynamics of productivity and the rates of economic growth. In the first section we present the main theoretical approaches to modeling secular stagnation, key factors of stagnation, including negative demographic trends, income inequality, slowing down of human capital growth and technical progress, etc. In the second section we make review of the empirical literature, devoted to the calibration of theoretical models or econometric estimates of the degree of influence of secular stagnation factors on output dynamics. In the third section we present the results of the case-study analysis of the international experience of secular stagnation in the example of Japan, the USA and the Eurozone, we find out general and specific factors that contribute to the implementation of the secular braking scenario in these countries.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

Trunin, Pavel and Bozhechkova, Alexandra and Petrova, Diana and Chaikina, Anastasiia and Nikanorov, Ivan, Анализ Подходов К Изучению Проблемы Долговременной Стагнации в Современных Экономиках (Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies) (March 21, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3147799 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3147799

Pavel Trunin (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Alexandra Bozhechkova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereylok 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Diana Petrova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow Campus, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Students ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Anastasiia Chaikina

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Ivan Nikanorov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

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