Persistent Imbalances: The Impact of Exchange Rate Appreciation on China's Trade Balances

29 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2018 Last revised: 15 Sep 2019

See all articles by Thomas Dimpfl

Thomas Dimpfl

University of Tuebingen - Department of Statistics and Econometrics

Alexander Schmidt

University of Hohenheim

Date Written: September 13, 2019

Abstract

China's trade surplus is often heavily criticized in political and economic debates, accompanied by claims for a revaluation of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB). While the main arguments exchanged in the current discourse appear to become more and more emotionally loaded rather than driven by empirical insights, the academic literature, so far, has failed to deliver comprehensive studies to further the discussion. This paper sets out to revive an empirically guided debate by investigating bilateral trade balances between China and 11 of her main trading partners. Being the first to use structural restrictions based on trade theory, we entertain a vector error correction model with subsequent impulse response analyses and variance decompositions. We find a negative reaction of the trade balance when the Chinese RMB appreciates for most of China's Asian trading partners. For the Western trading partners, including the USA, however, there seems to be no empirical support for an exchange rate effect on Chinese exports.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Trade Balance, Structural Identification, China

JEL Classification: C32, F14, F31, F41

Suggested Citation

Dimpfl, Thomas and Schmidt, Alexander, Persistent Imbalances: The Impact of Exchange Rate Appreciation on China's Trade Balances (September 13, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3148387 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3148387

Thomas Dimpfl

University of Tuebingen - Department of Statistics and Econometrics ( email )

Germany

Alexander Schmidt (Contact Author)

University of Hohenheim

Schloss 1C
Stuttgart, 70593
Germany

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