Expert Testimony at the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
103 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2018
Date Written: March 22, 2018
This report contains the expert testimony given by Bent Flyvbjerg at the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry. The testimony covers risk management in the Edinburgh tram project, with a main focus on cost and schedule risk. The impact of optimism bias on risk is emphasized. Reference class forecasting is discussed as a means to limit optimism bias and mitigate risks.
Keywords: Risk assessment, risk management, optimism bias, planning fallacy, inside view, outside view, reference class forecasting, cost overrun, schedule overrun
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