Expert Testimony at the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry

103 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2018

See all articles by Bent Flyvbjerg

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Date Written: March 22, 2018

Abstract

This report contains the expert testimony given by Bent Flyvbjerg at the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry. The testimony covers risk management in the Edinburgh tram project, with a main focus on cost and schedule risk. The impact of optimism bias on risk is emphasized. Reference class forecasting is discussed as a means to limit optimism bias and mitigate risks.

Keywords: Risk assessment, risk management, optimism bias, planning fallacy, inside view, outside view, reference class forecasting, cost overrun, schedule overrun

Suggested Citation

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Expert Testimony at the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry (March 22, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3149548

Bent Flyvbjerg (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

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