The First Real Estate Bubble? Land Prices and Rents in Medieval England C. 1300-1500

31 Pages Posted: 26 Mar 2018

See all articles by Adrian R. Bell

Adrian R. Bell

University of Reading - ICMA Centre

Chris Brooks

University of Reading - ICMA Centre

Helen Killick

University of Reading

Date Written: March 26, 2018

Abstract

This paper tests for speculative bubbles in the medieval English property market based on a unique hand-collected dataset from the feet of fines spanning the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. We focus on asset types where there are sufficiently large numbers of transactions each year to make a long and reliable run of information, and we transform this into annual time-series of prices. We employ a regime switching model that allows for boom and crash episodes to characterise and test for bubble dynamics. The results are consistent with the presence of periodic, partially collapsing speculative bubbles in the market for agricultural land, but there is no such evidence in the context of messuages. Our findings demonstrate that the medieval English property market shares important features with its contemporary counterpart, for instance with the recent so-called ‘barn bubble’.

Keywords: English Property Market, Real Estate, Speculative Bubble, Medieval Economy, Barn Bubble

JEL Classification: N13, N23, N33, N53, N93

Suggested Citation

Bell, Adrian R. and Brooks, Chris and Killick, Helen, The First Real Estate Bubble? Land Prices and Rents in Medieval England C. 1300-1500 (March 26, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3149574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3149574

Adrian R. Bell

University of Reading - ICMA Centre ( email )

Whiteknights Park
P.O. Box 242
Reading RG6 6BA
United Kingdom

Chris Brooks (Contact Author)

University of Reading - ICMA Centre ( email )

Whiteknights Park
P.O. Box 242
Reading RG6 6BA
United Kingdom
+44 118 931 82 39 (Phone)
+44 118 931 47 41 (Fax)

Helen Killick

University of Reading ( email )

Whiteknights
Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AH
United Kingdom

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