Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?

46 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2018

See all articles by Kasey Buckles

Kasey Buckles

University of Notre Dame - Department of Economics

Daniel M. Hungerman

University of Notre Dame

Steven Lugauer

University of Kentucky - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 28, 2018

Abstract

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

Keywords: Fertility, Births, Demographics, Business Cycle, Recession, Economic Indicators

JEL Classification: E32, E37, J11, J13

Suggested Citation

Buckles, Kasey and Hungerman, Daniel M. and Lugauer, Steven, Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? (March 28, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3151722 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3151722

Kasey Buckles (Contact Author)

University of Notre Dame - Department of Economics ( email )

Notre Dame, IN 46556
United States

Daniel M. Hungerman

University of Notre Dame ( email )

361 Mendoza College of Business
Notre Dame, IN 46556-5646
United States

Steven Lugauer

University of Kentucky - Department of Economics ( email )

Lexington, KY 40506
United States

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