Testing Rational Addiction: When Lifetime is Uncertain, One Lag is Enough

Quaderni - Working Paper DSE N° 1119

34 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2018

See all articles by Davide Dragone

Davide Dragone

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Davide Raggi

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Date Written: March 28, 2018

Abstract

The rational addiction model is usually tested by estimating a linear second-order difference Euler equation, which may produce unreliable estimates. We show that a linear first-order difference equation is a better alternative. This empirical specification is appropriate under the reasonable assumption that people are uncertain about the time of their death, it is based on the same structural assumptions used in the literature, and it retains all policy implications of the deterministic rational addiction model. It is also empirically convenient because it is simple, it allows using efficient estimation strategies that do not require instrumental variables, and it is robust to the possible non-stationarity of the data. As an application, we estimate the demand for smoking in the US from 1970 to 2016, and we show that it is consistent with the rational addiction model.

Keywords: Euler Equation, Saddle-Path, Uncertain Lifetime, Dynamic Panel Quasi-Maximum Likelihood, Smoking

JEL Classification: Dll, D12, I12, L66

Suggested Citation

Dragone, Davide and Raggi, Davide, Testing Rational Addiction: When Lifetime is Uncertain, One Lag is Enough (March 28, 2018). Quaderni - Working Paper DSE N° 1119. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3155099 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3155099

Davide Dragone (Contact Author)

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40126
Italy
0039.051.2098880 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.unibo.it/sitoweb/davide.dragone/en

Davide Raggi

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40126
Italy

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