Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

40 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2018

See all articles by Bertrand Gruss

Bertrand Gruss

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Malhar Nabar

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: March 2018

Abstract

This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions,and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and DevelopingEconomies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance ofcountry-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time-inparticular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third ofthe increase in average income per capita growth between 1995-2004 and 2005-14. Strongerexternal demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growthaccelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases theprobability of reversals.

Keywords: Economic growth, Emerging markets, Developing Economies, External Conditions, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Globalization: Economic Development

JEL Classification: O47, F43, F63

Suggested Citation

Gruss, Bertrand and Nabar, Malhar and Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions (March 2018). IMF Working Paper No. 18/52. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3157015

Bertrand Gruss (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Malhar Nabar

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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