Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package

18 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2018

See all articles by Michal Andrle

Michal Andrle

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Alvar Kangur

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Mehdi Raissi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Asia and Pacific Department

Date Written: March 2018

Abstract

This paper seeks to quantify the net benefits of a comprehensive reform package aimedat addressing Italy's inter-related challenges. Specifically, it simulates the growth andcompetitiveness effects of a package of fiscal, financial, wage bargaining, and otherstructural reforms. Credible implementation of such a package yields substantial mediumtermdividends at negligible near-term growth costs. Real GDP growth is estimated to besubstantially higher over the medium term, while the real effective exchange ratedepreciates notably.

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Wage bargaining, Europe, Italy, Banking sector, Fiscal policy, growth, competitiveness, product market reforms, DSGE models, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Quantitative Policy Modeling, Forecasting and Simulation, General, Institutions and Growth

JEL Classification: C53, C54, E27, E61, E62, J30, J52, L11, O43

Suggested Citation

Andrle, Michal and Kangur, Alvar and Raissi, Mehdi, Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package (March 2018). IMF Working Paper No. 18/60. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3157022

Michal Andrle (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Alvar Kangur

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Mehdi Raissi

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Asia and Pacific Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/mehdiraissi/

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