Finding the Unicorn: Predicting Early Stage Startup Success Through a Hybrid Intelligence Method

Dellermann, D.; Lipusch, N.; Ebel, P.; Popp, K. M. & Leimeister, J. M. (2017):Finding the Unicorn: Predicting Early Stage Startup Success through a Hybrid Intelligence Method. In: International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS). Seoul, South Korea.

13 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2018

See all articles by Dominik Dellermann

Dominik Dellermann

University of Kassel - Information Systems

Nikolaus Lipusch

University of Kassel - Information Systems; University of St. Gallen

Philipp Ebel

University of Kassel - Information Systems

Karl Michael Popp

SAP SE

J. M. Leimeister

University of St. Gallen; University of Kassel - Information Systems

Date Written: December 10, 2017

Abstract

Artificial intelligence is an emerging topic and will soon be able to perform decisions better than humans. In more complex and creative contexts such as innovation, however, the question remains whether machines are superior to humans. Machines fail in two kinds of situations: processing and interpreting “soft” information (information that cannot be quantified) and making predictions in “unknowable risk” situations of extreme uncertainty. In such situations, the machine does not have representative information for a certain outcome. Thereby, humans are still the “gold standard” for assessing “soft” signals and make use intuition. To predict the success of startups, we, thus, combine the complementary capabilities of humans and machines in a Hybrid Intelligence method. To reach our aim, we follow a design science research approach to develop a Hybrid Intelligence method that combines the strength of both machine and collective intelligence to demonstrate its utility for predictions under extreme uncertainty.

Keywords: Uncertainty, wisdom of the crowd, machine learning, design science, decision making/makers, hybrid intelligence

Suggested Citation

Dellermann, Dominik and Lipusch, Nikolaus and Ebel, Philipp and Popp, Karl Michael and Leimeister, Jan Marco, Finding the Unicorn: Predicting Early Stage Startup Success Through a Hybrid Intelligence Method (December 10, 2017). Dellermann, D.; Lipusch, N.; Ebel, P.; Popp, K. M. & Leimeister, J. M. (2017):Finding the Unicorn: Predicting Early Stage Startup Success through a Hybrid Intelligence Method. In: International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS). Seoul, South Korea.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3159123 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3159123

Dominik Dellermann

University of Kassel - Information Systems

Pfannkuchstraße 1
Kassel, 34121
Germany

Nikolaus Lipusch

University of Kassel - Information Systems ( email )

Nora-Platiel 4
Kassel, 34127
Germany

University of St. Gallen ( email )

Langgasse 1
St. Gallen, 9008
Switzerland

Philipp Ebel

University of Kassel - Information Systems ( email )

Nora-Platiel 4
Kassel, 34127
Germany

Karl Michael Popp

SAP SE ( email )

Dietmar-Hopp-Allee 16
Walldorf, 69190
Germany

Jan Marco Leimeister (Contact Author)

University of St. Gallen ( email )

Varnbuelstr. 14
Saint Gallen, St. Gallen CH-9000
Switzerland

University of Kassel - Information Systems ( email )

Nora-Platiel 4
Kassel, 34127
Germany

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