Unexpected Event During Surveys Design: Promise and Pitfalls for Causal Inference

62 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2018 Last revised: 6 Feb 2019

See all articles by Jordi Muñoz

Jordi Muñoz

University of Barcelona

Albert Falcó-Gimeno

University of Barcelona

Enrique Hernández

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Date Written: February 5, 2019

Abstract

An increasing number of studies exploit the occurrence of unexpected events during the fieldwork of public opinion surveys to estimate causal effects. In this paper we discuss the use of this identification strategy based on unforeseen and salient events that split the sample of respondents into treatment and control groups: the Unexpected Event during Surveys Design (UESD). In particular we focus on the assumptions under which unexpected events can be exploited to estimate causal effects and we discuss potential threats to identification, paying especial attention to the observable and testable implications of these assumptions. We propose a series of best practices in the form of various estimation strategies and robustness checks that can be used to lend credibility to the causal estimates. Drawing on data from the European Social Survey we illustrate the discussion of this method with an original study of the impact of the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks (Paris, 01/07/2015) on French citizens' satisfaction with their national government.

Keywords: Methods, Causal Identification, Survey Research

Suggested Citation

Muñoz, Jordi and Falcó-Gimeno, Albert and Hernández, Enrique, Unexpected Event During Surveys Design: Promise and Pitfalls for Causal Inference (February 5, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3159194 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3159194

Jordi Muñoz (Contact Author)

University of Barcelona ( email )

Av. Diagonal 684
Barcelona, Catalonia 08024
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.jordimunoz.cat

Albert Falcó-Gimeno

University of Barcelona ( email )

Av. Diagonal 684
Barcelona, 08034
Spain
(+34) 934020963 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://falcogimeno.com

Enrique Hernández

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

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