Marking Territory: Modeling the Spread of Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1992-1995

61 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2018

See all articles by Charles Becker

Charles Becker

Duke University - Department of Economics

Peter Devine

Government of the United States of America - Navy

Harun Dogo

World Bank

Elizabeth Margolin

Duke University

Date Written: April 10, 2018

Abstract

In order to study post-conflict economic development and social change in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), it is necessary to control for variation in the effect of conflict on each local community. To do this, we first explore the variation in nature, severity, and incidence of conflict during the 1992-1995 war. The conflict narrative is coded by type and date of an incident; these data are then related to indicators of pre- and post-conflict population composition, and presence of industrial, transportation, or military infrastructure. We then use OLS and IV regressions to attempt to identify the community determinants of where and when fighting will occur within a war. The results across the four sets of regressions indicate that ethnic composition is the primary initial determinant of conflict type and intensity, with more diverse communities suffering more conflict and greater intensity of fighting. We conclude that any analysis of post-conflict economic development needs to control for the variation in pre-war ethnic diversity and differences in pre- and post-conflict ethnic composition. Subsequent studies will seek to understand the effect of conflict typology, intensity, and community type on landmine placement and the effect of landmines on post-conflict social and economic development.

Suggested Citation

Becker, Charles Maxwell and Devine, Peter and Dogo, Harun and Margolin, Elizabeth, Marking Territory: Modeling the Spread of Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1992-1995 (April 10, 2018). Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 266. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3160015 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3160015

Charles Maxwell Becker (Contact Author)

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

Peter Devine

Government of the United States of America - Navy ( email )

Washington, DC
United States

Harun Dogo

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Elizabeth Margolin

Duke University ( email )

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

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