Marking Territory: Modeling the Spread of Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1992-1995
61 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2018
Date Written: April 10, 2018
In order to study post-conflict economic development and social change in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), it is necessary to control for variation in the effect of conflict on each local community. To do this, we first explore the variation in nature, severity, and incidence of conflict during the 1992-1995 war. The conflict narrative is coded by type and date of an incident; these data are then related to indicators of pre- and post-conflict population composition, and presence of industrial, transportation, or military infrastructure. We then use OLS and IV regressions to attempt to identify the community determinants of where and when fighting will occur within a war. The results across the four sets of regressions indicate that ethnic composition is the primary initial determinant of conflict type and intensity, with more diverse communities suffering more conflict and greater intensity of fighting. We conclude that any analysis of post-conflict economic development needs to control for the variation in pre-war ethnic diversity and differences in pre- and post-conflict ethnic composition. Subsequent studies will seek to understand the effect of conflict typology, intensity, and community type on landmine placement and the effect of landmines on post-conflict social and economic development.
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