Bayesian Network Modelling for Supply Chain Risk Propagation

Ojha, R., Ghadge, A., Tiwari, MK. and Bititci, U. (2018), “Bayesian network modelling for supply chain risk propagation”, International Journal of Production Research, Forthcoming

37 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2018

See all articles by Ritesh Ojha

Ritesh Ojha

Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur - Department of Industrial Engineering and Management

Abhijeet Ghadge

Cranfield University - School of Management

Manoj Tiwari

Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur - Department of Industrial Engineering and Management

Umit Bititci

Heriot-Watt University - Department of Business Management

Date Written: April 10, 2018

Abstract

Supply chain risk propagation is a cascading effect of risks on global supply chain networks. The paper attempts to measure the behaviour of risks following the assessment of supply chain risk propagation. Bayesian network theory is used to analyse the multi-echelon network faced with simultaneous disruptions. The ripple effect of node disruption is evaluated using metrics like fragility, service level, inventory cost and lost sales. Developed risk exposure and resilience indices support in assessing the vulnerability and adaptability of each node in the supply chain network. The research provides a holistic measurement approach for predicting the complex behaviour of risk propagation for improved supply chain risk management.

Keywords: Supply chain risk management, Risk propagation, Ripple effect, Risk modelling, Bayesian network, Supply chain disruptions, Uncertainty modelling

Suggested Citation

Ojha, Ritesh and Ghadge, Abhijeet and Tiwari, Manoj and Bititci, Umit, Bayesian Network Modelling for Supply Chain Risk Propagation (April 10, 2018). Ojha, R., Ghadge, A., Tiwari, MK. and Bititci, U. (2018), “Bayesian network modelling for supply chain risk propagation”, International Journal of Production Research, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3160387

Ritesh Ojha

Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur - Department of Industrial Engineering and Management ( email )

Department of Industrial Engineering & Management
Kharagpur, West Bengal 721302
India

Abhijeet Ghadge (Contact Author)

Cranfield University - School of Management ( email )

Bedfordshire, MK43 0AL
United Kingdom

Manoj Tiwari

Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur - Department of Industrial Engineering and Management ( email )

Department of Industrial Engineering & Management
Kharagpur, West Bengal 721302
India

Umit Bititci

Heriot-Watt University - Department of Business Management ( email )

United States

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