Crowdsourcing Economic Forecasts

33 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2018 Last revised: 8 May 2019

See all articles by Mike Aguilar

Mike Aguilar

Duke University

Anessa Custovic

Cardinal Retirement Planning Inc.

Amar M. Patel

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 3, 2019

Abstract

Economic forecasts are often disseminated via a survey of professionals (i.e. “Consensus”). In this paper we compare and contrast the Consensus with a crowdsourced alternative wherein anyone may submit a forecast. We focus on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and find that, on average, Consensus is more accurate, but the best crowd- sourced forecasters are superior to the best Consensus forecasters. We also find that information plays a key role. When the Consensus is uncertain and herds together, the crowdsourced forecasts appear to be more accurate. Our findings provide evidence that crowdsourcing might provide a valuable supplement to traditional macroeconomic forecasts.

Keywords: wisdom of crowds, macroeconomic forecasting, expert forecast, macroeconomic news, forecasting

Suggested Citation

Aguilar, Mike and Custovic, Anessa and Patel, Amar, Crowdsourcing Economic Forecasts (May 3, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3160795 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3160795

Mike Aguilar (Contact Author)

Duke University ( email )

Durham, NC 27708
United States

Anessa Custovic

Cardinal Retirement Planning Inc. ( email )

2530 Meridian Pkway #100
Durham, NC 27713
United States

Amar Patel

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics ( email )

102 Ridge Road
Chapel Hill, NC 27514
United States

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