Recessions and the Stock Market

Abstract

An event study approach is adopted to investigate the drivers of the stock market around recessions. First, stock prices and dividends drop contemporaneously when accounting for different timing conventions. Accordingly, stock prices do not anticipate recessions due to an economic mechanism (cash flow news). Second, the variance of price changes increases at least as much as the variance of dividend growth during recessions. This result suggests that changes in the price of risk (discount rate news) play an essential role. Implications and opportunities for standard asset pricing theories and recently proposed alternatives are also discussed.

Keywords: Business cycles and the stock market; predictability of the price-dividend ratio; empirical evaluation of macro-finance models.

JEL Classification: G12