Will the Sustainable Development Goals Be Fulfilled? Assessing Present and Future Global Poverty

8 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2018

See all articles by Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

University of Innsbruck - Department of Economic Theory, Economic Policy and Economic History

Wolfgang Fengler

World Bank

Homi Kharas

The Brookings Institution

Karim Bekhtiar

Vienna University of Economics and Business

Michael Brottrager

Johannes Kepler University

Martin Hofer

Vienna University of Economics and Business

Date Written: March 2018

Abstract

Monitoring progress towards the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires the assessment of potential future trends in poverty. This paper presents an econometric tool that provides a methodological framework to carry out projections of poverty rates worldwide and aims at assessing absolute poverty changes at the global level under different scenarios. The model combines country-specific historical estimates of the distribution of income, using Beta–Lorenz curves, with projections of population changes by age and education attainment level, as well as GDP projections to provide the first set of internally consistent poverty projections for all countries of the world. Making use of demographic and economic projections developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, we create poverty paths by country up to the year 2030. The differences implied by different global scenarios span worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) by the end of our projection period. The largest differences in poverty headcount and poverty rates across scenarios appear for Sub-Saharan Africa, where the projections for the most optimistic scenario imply over 300 million individuals living in extreme poverty in 2030. The results of the comparison of poverty scenarios point towards the difficulty of fulfilling the first goal of the SDGs unless further development policy efforts are enacted.

Suggested Citation

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús and Fengler, Wolfgang and Kharas, Homi and Bekhtiar, Karim and Brottrager, Michael and Hofer, Martin, Will the Sustainable Development Goals Be Fulfilled? Assessing Present and Future Global Poverty (March 2018). Palgrave Communications, Vol. 4, Issue 1, pp. 29-29, 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3162143 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599-018-0083-y

Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Contact Author)

University of Innsbruck - Department of Economic Theory, Economic Policy and Economic History ( email )

Universitaetsstrasse 15
Innsbruck, A - 6020
Austria

Wolfgang Fengler

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Homi Kharas

The Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.brookings.edu/experts/kharash.aspx

Karim Bekhtiar

Vienna University of Economics and Business

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, Wien 1020
Austria

Michael Brottrager

Johannes Kepler University ( email )

Linz
Austria

Martin Hofer

Vienna University of Economics and Business

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, Wien 1020
Austria

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