Trade Cycle Valuation of Growth Dynamics for Inflation and Recession Control: The Nigerian Experience

British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 15(2), 19-37, May 2018

29 Pages Posted: 3 May 2018

See all articles by Samuel Okafor

Samuel Okafor

Nnamdi Azikiwe University - Department of Economics

Olisaemeka Maduka

Nnamdi Azikiwe University - Department of Economics

Ann Ike

Federal Polytechnic, Nigeria

Daniel Okoro

Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education - Department of Economics

Kenneth Ahamba

Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo - Department of Economics

Date Written: April 15, 2018

Abstract

Heavy dependence on international financial market renders the developing economies susceptible to global recession. Nigeria is a typical case of a developing economy which is inextricably linked with the international financial system and has recently exited from recession. To prevent recurrence and avert a possible relapse into recession, study focused on a trade-cycle valuation of growth dynamics in Nigeria. Study spanned across 1970-2015. Data were sourced from CBN. Data were analyzed using time-series component of trend, seasonal variation and random factors. Findings indicate that: (1) Nigeria was an emerging large market (2) Nigerian economy was characterized by poor policy implementation (3) Trade openness subjected the Nigerian economy to the vagaries of international financial instability and global recession (4) Growth was not self sustaining (5) Reconfiguration of the Nigerian economy revolving around poverty and employment generation was an effective policy for economic recovery. Study concluded that poverty reduction and employment generation are sine qua non for the achievement of self-sustaining growth in developing countries. It was recommended, inter alia, that Nigeria and other African countries should forge trade relations into regional trading bloc to convert their competitive disadvantage into competing comparative advantage during trade negotiation in international market.

Keywords: business cycle, economic growth, stagflation, inflation control, recession control

Suggested Citation

Okafor, Samuel and Maduka, Olisaemeka and Ike, Ann and Okoro, Daniel and Ahamba, Kenneth, Trade Cycle Valuation of Growth Dynamics for Inflation and Recession Control: The Nigerian Experience (April 15, 2018). British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 15(2), 19-37, May 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3162939

Samuel Okafor (Contact Author)

Nnamdi Azikiwe University - Department of Economics ( email )

Enugu-Onitsha Expressway
Nnamdi Azikiwe University
Awka, Anambra
Nigeria

Olisaemeka Maduka

Nnamdi Azikiwe University - Department of Economics

Enugu-Onitsha Expressway
Nnamdi Azikiwe University
Awka, Anambra
Nigeria

Ann Ike

Federal Polytechnic, Nigeria

PMB 231
Osun State
Nigeria

Daniel Okoro

Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education - Department of Economics ( email )

Owerri
Nigeria

Kenneth Ahamba

Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo - Department of Economics ( email )

Ikwo
Nigeria

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