Climate-Finance and Climate Transition Risk: An Assessment of China's Overseas Energy Investments Portfolio

27 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2018

See all articles by Irene Monasterolo

Irene Monasterolo

Boston University; Vienna University of Economics and Business

Jiani I. Zheng

University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance

Stefano Battiston

University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute

Date Written: April 12, 2018

Abstract

The role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance institutions still lack sound and transparent metrics to assess the exposure of their projects to climate risks, as well as their impact on climate action. This information is crucial to allow them to deliver on their mandate, to preserve their financial position and to align beneficiary countries' economies to the climate goals. We contribute to fill in this gap by developing a novel climate stress-test methodology applied to the portfolios of overseas energy projects of two main Chinese policy banks. We estimate their exposure to two types of shocks, i.e. climate policy and balance sheet shocks, for individual energy projects across regions and energy sectors, under milder and tighter climate policy scenarios. Then, we provide several risk metrics. We find that the negative shocks are mostly concentrated on coal and oil projects and vary across regions between 4.2% and 22% of total loans value. Given the current leverage of Chinese policy banks, these losses are not negligible in comparison to banks' capital.

Keywords: Overseas Energy Fi nance, Climate Transition Risk, Climate Policy Scenarios, Climate Stress-Test, Climate VaR, Climate- Finance

JEL Classification: G01, G11, G32, G33

Suggested Citation

Monasterolo, Irene and Zheng, Jiani I. and Battiston, Stefano, Climate-Finance and Climate Transition Risk: An Assessment of China's Overseas Energy Investments Portfolio (April 12, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3163335 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3163335

Irene Monasterolo (Contact Author)

Boston University ( email )

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Vienna University of Economics and Business ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, Wien 1020
Austria

Jiani I. Zheng

University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance ( email )

Schönberggasse 1
Zürich, 8001
Switzerland

Stefano Battiston

University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance ( email )

Andreasstrasse 15
Zürich, 8050
Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute

c/o University of Geneva
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1211 Geneva 4
Switzerland

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