Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication

78 Pages Posted: 25 Jun 2018 Last revised: 27 Aug 2018

Anna Cieslak

Duke University, Fuqua School of Business

Andreas Schrimpf

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 16, 2018

Abstract

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk premia. Our approach exploits high-frequency comovement of stocks and interest rates combined with monotonicity restrictions across the yield curve. We find significant differences in news composition depending on the communication channel used by central banks. Non-monetary news prevails in about 40% of policy decision announcements by the Fed and the ECB, and this fraction is even higher for communications that provide context to policy decisions such as press conferences. We show that non-monetary news accounts for a significant part of financial markets' reaction during the financial crisis and in the early recovery, while monetary shocks gain importance since 2013.

Keywords: central bank communication, monetary policy shocks, yield curve, stock-bond comovement, central bank information effects, risk premia

Suggested Citation

Cieslak, Anna and Schrimpf, Andreas, Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication (June 16, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3164894 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3164894

Anna Cieslak (Contact Author)

Duke University, Fuqua School of Business ( email )

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States
919 660 7879 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/ancieslak/

Andreas Schrimpf

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland

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