Strategic Manpower Planning under Uncertainty

39 Pages Posted: 10 May 2018 Last revised: 13 Nov 2019

See all articles by Patrick Jaillet

Patrick Jaillet

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

Gar Goei Loke

National University of Singapore

Melvyn Sim

National University of Singapore (NUS) - NUS Business School

Date Written: April 24, 2018

Abstract

The manpower planning problem of hiring, dismissing and promoting has been the perennial difficulty of HR management. To cope with uncertain attrition, we propose a new approach of finding a course of action that safeguards against violating organizational target-meeting constraints such as productivity, budget, headcount, dismissal threshold and managerial span of control. As such, this approach leads to a tractable conic optimization model that minimizes a decision criterion that is inspired by Aumann and Serrano (2008)’s index, for which its value can be associated with probabilistic and robustness guarantees in meeting constraints under uncertainty. Additionally, our model departs from the literature by considering employees’ time-in-grade, which is known to affect resignations, as a decision variable. In our formulation, decisions and the uncertainty are related. To solve the model, we introduce the technique of pipeline invariance, which yields an exact re-formulation that may be tractably solved. Computational performance of the model is studied by running simulations on a real dataset of employees performing the same job function in the Singapore Civil Service. Using our model, we are able to numerically illustrate insights into HR, such as the consequences of a lack of organizational renewal. Our model is also likely the first numerical illustration that lends weight to a time-based progression policy common to bureaucracies.

Keywords: manpower planning, robust optimization, multi-period optimization, public sector, riskiness index

JEL Classification: C44, J63, D24, D81, H83

Suggested Citation

Jaillet, Patrick and Loke, Gar Goei and Sim, Melvyn, Strategic Manpower Planning under Uncertainty (April 24, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3168168 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3168168

Patrick Jaillet

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

Gar Goei Loke (Contact Author)

National University of Singapore ( email )

Department of Analytics & Operations
NUS Business School
Singapore, 119245
Singapore
006598314864 (Phone)

Melvyn Sim

National University of Singapore (NUS) - NUS Business School ( email )

1 Business Link
Singapore, 117592
Singapore

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