Strategic Manpower Planning under Uncertainty
39 Pages Posted: 10 May 2018 Last revised: 13 Nov 2019
Date Written: April 24, 2018
The manpower planning problem of hiring, dismissing and promoting has been the perennial diﬃculty of HR management. To cope with uncertain attrition, we propose a new approach of ﬁnding a course of action that safeguards against violating organizational target-meeting constraints such as productivity, budget, headcount, dismissal threshold and managerial span of control. As such, this approach leads to a tractable conic optimization model that minimizes a decision criterion that is inspired by Aumann and Serrano (2008)’s index, for which its value can be associated with probabilistic and robustness guarantees in meeting constraints under uncertainty. Additionally, our model departs from the literature by considering employees’ time-in-grade, which is known to aﬀect resignations, as a decision variable. In our formulation, decisions and the uncertainty are related. To solve the model, we introduce the technique of pipeline invariance, which yields an exact re-formulation that may be tractably solved. Computational performance of the model is studied by running simulations on a real dataset of employees performing the same job function in the Singapore Civil Service. Using our model, we are able to numerically illustrate insights into HR, such as the consequences of a lack of organizational renewal. Our model is also likely the ﬁrst numerical illustration that lends weight to a time-based progression policy common to bureaucracies.
Keywords: manpower planning, robust optimization, multi-period optimization, public sector, riskiness index
JEL Classification: C44, J63, D24, D81, H83
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation