The Measurement of Disaster Risk: An Example from Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines

30 Pages Posted: 25 Apr 2018

See all articles by Rio Yonson

Rio Yonson

Victoria University of Wellington

Ilan Noy

Victoria University of Wellington

JC Gaillard

University of Auckland

Date Written: May 2018

Abstract

What determines disaster fatalities? We develop a tool to estimate tropical cyclone‐induced fatalities in the Philippine provinces, and to explain the variability of these fatalities across provinces using an evidence‐based approach. We construct a new provincial‐level panel dataset, and use statistical methods to assess the influence of socioeconomic vulnerability (i.e., levels of economic and social development, urbanization, governance), exposure (i.e., population, topography, and geography), and hazard characteristics (i.e., rainfall volume and wind speed) on the resulting fatalities from tropical cyclones. We find strong evidence that socioeconomic development and good local governance reduces disaster fatalities, while unplanned urbanization is associated with more fatalities. Exposure, including topography, and tropical cyclone strength are likewise important determinants of fatalities. However, disaster fatalities appear to be influenced much more by socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure, than by the hazard itself. We quantify this difference in order to contribute to policy planning at national and subnational scales.

Suggested Citation

Yonson, Rio and Noy, Ilan and Gaillard, JC, The Measurement of Disaster Risk: An Example from Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines (May 2018). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 22, Issue 2, pp. 736-765, 2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3168234 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12365

Rio Yonson (Contact Author)

Victoria University of Wellington ( email )

P.O. Box 600
Wellington, 6140
New Zealand

Ilan Noy

Victoria University of Wellington ( email )

P.O. Box 600
Wellington, 6140
New Zealand

JC Gaillard

University of Auckland ( email )

Private Bag 92019
Auckland Mail Centre
Auckland, 1142
New Zealand

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
1
Abstract Views
177
PlumX Metrics