Dismantling the 'Jungle': Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France

38 Pages Posted: 7 May 2018

See all articles by Paul Vertier

Paul Vertier

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Max Viskanic

Department of Economics, Sciences Po-CNRS

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Date Written: March 08, 2018

Abstract

Can a small scale inflow of migrants affect electoral outcomes? We study whether the relocation of migrants from the Calais “Jungle” to temporary migrant-centers (CAOs) in France affected the results of the 2017 presidential election. Using an instrumental variables approach that relies on the size of holiday villages present in municipalities, we find that the presence of a CAO reduced the vote share increase of the far-right party (Front National) by about 15.7 percent. These effects, which dissipate spatially and depend on city characteristics and on the size of the inflow, point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport (1954)).

Keywords: political economy, voting, migration, EU, France, migrants

JEL Classification: C360, D720, J150, P160, R230

Suggested Citation

Vertier, Paul and Viskanic, Max, Dismantling the 'Jungle': Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France (March 08, 2018). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6927, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3170838

Paul Vertier

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Max Viskanic (Contact Author)

Department of Economics, Sciences Po-CNRS ( email )

28 rue des saints peres
Paris, 75007
France

HOME PAGE: http://maxviskanic.com

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