Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: A Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis (Libéralisation Des Échanges Et Dynamique De La Pauvreté En Tunisie : Analyse Avec Une Microsimulation Séquentielle)

PEP working paper serie 2006-07

29 Pages Posted: 17 May 2018 Last revised: 12 Jul 2018

See all articles by Sami Bibi

Sami Bibi

Université Laval - Département d'Économique

Rim Chatti

ESSEC Business School - Economics Department

Date Written: April 1, 2006

Abstract

The effects of trade liberalization on poverty in Tunisia are examined, using a layered dynamic CGE-microsimulation approach. A dynamic CGE model endogenously generates the evolution of prices, as well as income paths under protection and freer trade assumptions for each household group. These results are then used to assess the change in real income of each household, using a sample from the 1995 household survey, and thus the effects of the simulated changes on poverty. Dominance tests are also used to avoid the arbitrariness of choosing a poverty line and a poverty measure. Simulation results show that trade openness slows down the poverty reduction in the short run, but enhances it in the long-run.

Keywords: Trade liberalization; poverty; dynamic CGE models; sequential microsimulation; Tunisia

Suggested Citation

Bibi, Sami and Chatti, Rim, Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: A Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis (Libéralisation Des Échanges Et Dynamique De La Pauvreté En Tunisie : Analyse Avec Une Microsimulation Séquentielle) (April 1, 2006). PEP working paper serie 2006-07. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3173215 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3173215

Sami Bibi (Contact Author)

Université Laval - Département d'Économique ( email )

2325 Rue de l'Université
DeSeve
Quebec Canada, QC G1K 7P4
Canada

Rim Chatti

ESSEC Business School - Economics Department ( email )

95021 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex
France
216 71 873 286 (Phone)

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