Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment

11 Pages Posted: 22 May 2018 Last revised: 13 Sep 2018

See all articles by Casey Helgeson

Casey Helgeson

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE)

Richard Bradley

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Philosophy

Brian Hill

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences; CNRS

Date Written: January 17, 2018

Abstract

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.

Keywords: confidence; uncertainty reporting; climate change

Suggested Citation

Helgeson, Casey and Bradley, Richard and Hill, Brian, Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment (January 17, 2018). HEC Paris Research Paper No. ECO/SCD-2018-1298. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3177022 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3177022

Casey Helgeson

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Richard Bradley

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Philosophy ( email )

United States

Brian Hill (Contact Author)

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences ( email )

Paris
France

CNRS ( email )

3, rue Michel-Ange
Paris, 75794
France

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