Anticipating the Direct Effects of Credit Supply
58 Pages Posted: 14 May 2018 Last revised: 7 Mar 2021
Date Written: May 2018
Empirical studies of the direct effects of credit supply on asset prices often use difference-indifference or event-study designs based on deregulatory events. The assumptions underlying such strategies are violated when there is anticipation by unconstrained buyers. We develop an information-revelation based model that allows us to estimate the direct effects of credit supply in the presence of anticipatory pre-trends using a simple linear dynamic panel approach. We apply the model to China’s 2010-2015 stock margin lending reform, which precipitated a credit cycle and a stock market boom and bust. We estimate that margin lending increased the prices of treated stocks by 20%. More than 60% of this effect was already impounded in prices six months before the actual deregulation.
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