Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade-Off between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?

18 Pages Posted: 6 May 2003

See all articles by Philip Arestis

Philip Arestis

University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy; Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU)

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance; London South Bank University; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Andrea Cipollini

University of Palermo - d/SEAS; Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Faculty of Business and Economics; Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Center for Research in Banking and Finance (CEFIN)

Abstract

We utilize a stochastic volatility model to analyse the possible effects of inflation targeting on the trade-off between output gap variability and inflation variability. We find that the adoption of inflation targets (in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Finland) might result in a more favourable monetary policy trade-off (except in Australia and Finland). This conclusion is reached by comparing, first, the economic performance of targeting countries in the 1980s and the 1990s; and second, the economic performance in the 1990s of targeting and non-targeting countries (the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France and the Netherlands). We focus on two possible explanations for the performance of the inflation-targeting regime: The relatively high degree of monetary policy transparency, and the presence of a flexible institutional framework.

Suggested Citation

Arestis, Philip and Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Cipollini, Andrea, Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade-Off between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?. Manchester School, Vol. 70, No. 4, pp. 528-545, 2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=317839

Philip Arestis (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy ( email )

19 Silver Street
Cambridge, CB3 9EP
United Kingdom

Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU)

Barrio Sarriena s/n
Leioa, Bizkaia 48940
Spain

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Kingston Lane
Marie Jahoda Building
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom
+44 1895 266713 (Phone)
+44 1895 269770 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/about/acad/bbs/bbsstaff/ef_staff/guglielmocaporale/

London South Bank University ( email )

Centre for Monetary and Financial Economics
London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Andrea Cipollini

University of Palermo - d/SEAS ( email )

Viale delle Scienze, edificio 13
Palermo, 90124
Italy

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Faculty of Business and Economics ( email )

Viale Berengario 51
41100 Modena, Modena 41100
Italy

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Center for Research in Banking and Finance (CEFIN) ( email )

via Berengario 51
Modena, modena I-41100
Italy

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